Trend-modeling pack
Trend-modeling pack
Section titled “Trend-modeling pack”The trend-modeling pack is a methodology dimension. It applies three-valued logic — INC (increasing), DEC (decreasing), CONST (constant) — to analyze markets when precise numerical data is unavailable. It enables meaningful directional analysis with minimal information and produces a complete enumeration of consistent scenarios.
For control-plane mechanics see Packs and Plugins.
trend-modeling
Section titled “trend-modeling”Version: 0.4.1 | Kind: methodology | Dimension: trend
Source: packs/trend-modeling/trend-modeling/
Purpose
Section titled “Purpose”Models market or system behavior by assigning INC / DEC / CONST to a set of variables
and systematically generating all scenarios consistent with the declared relationships
between them. A Mermaid stateDiagram-v2 transitional scenario graph is required.
The three values extend with acceleration modifiers when the data supports them:
AG (accelerating growth), DG (decelerating growth), AD (accelerating decline),
DD (decelerating decline). Pairwise relationships are expressed as INC(X, Y)
(X and Y move together) or DEC(X, Y) (X and Y move oppositely).
When to use
Section titled “When to use”Use trend-modeling when:
- Data is scarce or unreliable
- Relationships between variables are qualitative rather than quantitative
- Uncertainty is high and quick directional insight is needed
- Scenario planning is required but numerical constants or parameters are unavailable
What it provides
Section titled “What it provides”Six required output sections:
| Section | Content |
|---|---|
| Variables | Variable name, current state, trend, confidence |
| Relationship Matrix | INC / DEC pairwise relationships between all variables |
| Generated Scenarios | All consistent variable assignments; terminal flag per scenario |
| Transitional Graph | Mermaid stateDiagram-v2 showing scenario transitions |
| Terminal Scenario Analysis | Equilibrium conditions, trade-offs, recommendation |
| Trade-offs | Multi-objective conflicts at terminal scenarios |
Dependencies
Section titled “Dependencies”None beyond the core engine. The transitional graph is emitted as a Mermaid
stateDiagram-v2 code block (plain text), so the pack runs with no extra tools.
Mermaid tooling is optional and only needed to render that block into an image
(for example in PDF or HTML output).
Benefits
Section titled “Benefits”- Three-valued logic produces a complete list of all consistent futures without requiring numerical parameters — the full scenario space is enumerable from qualitative inputs alone
- Terminal scenario identification surfaces equilibrium states automatically, so planners know where the system converges rather than guessing
- INC / DEC / CONST notation integrates directly with the same trend vocabulary used by competitive-analysis, financial-analysis, market-sizing, and regulatory-review, making cross-dimension synthesis coherent
- Transitional graph makes scenario paths and branching points visible, so the transitions between scenarios receive as much attention as the endpoints
Confidence tiers
Section titled “Confidence tiers”| Tier | Basis |
|---|---|
| High | Inputs validated by 3+ independent dimension findings |
| Medium | Inputs from 2 dimensions with reasonable assumptions |
| Low | Speculative or single-dimension basis |
Alert conditions: a scenario with >50% probability of adverse outcome, a bifurcation point within the planning horizon, or a terminal scenario that invalidates core business assumptions.
Constraints
Section titled “Constraints”- Ships disabled; enable with
scripts/pack-toggle.sh trend-modeling on. - Formal notation is limited to three values (INC / DEC / CONST) plus optional acceleration modifiers — no numerical parameters are accepted.
- Mermaid CLI is optional; the
stateDiagram-v2block is emitted as plain text and only needs Mermaid tooling to render it into an image. - All input variables and declared relationships must be grounded in the findings corpus; speculative relationships must be documented explicitly.
- Produce a complete, enumerated list of all internally consistent scenarios from qualitative variable assignments.
- Identify and flag terminal scenarios — equilibrium states where the system converges — automatically.
- Emit a
stateDiagram-v2transitional graph that makes scenario paths and branching points explicit. - Deliver multi-objective trade-off analysis at each terminal scenario with a priority-aligned recommendation.
- Assign a confidence tier (High / Medium / Low) scaled to the number of independent dimension findings supplying the input variables.
Enable
Section titled “Enable”scripts/pack-toggle.sh trend-modeling on